Trend Analysis and Environmental Impact Assessment

  • Start Date: February 07, 2018
  • End Date: February 09, 2018
  • Time: 12:30pm-6:30pm
  • City: Revelstoke BC
  • Venue: Okanagan College - 1401 1 St W, Revelstoke, BC, Rm 102
  • Instructor: Dr. Carl Schwarz
  • Early bird rates available until Nov 30, 2017

Course description

Environmental impact assessments want to know if trends over time differ between control and impact sites. Statistical methods for the analysis of trends over time use many of the same methods as the analysis of experimental data (e.g. ANOVA, regression) but must now deal with problems such as autocorrelation and process error.

*This course can accommodate students using both R and JMP software.

We are trying out something new in response to membership requests and running this course mid-winter in Revelstoke! This course will run on a schedule that will allow students to take up local winter recreation opportunities in the morning and/or by staying in Revelstoke for the weekend following the course.  See information below under “Skiing” for information on discounted lift-tickets for CMI students, and more.

 

Course content

  1. Review of statistical concepts on estimates, standard errors, confidence intervals, p-values, bias, precision, accuracy,
    missing values, etc.
  2. Detecting linear changes over time
    Regression and non-parametric methods
    Power and how many years to monitor
    Dealing with seasonality and autocorrelation
    Sampling vs process error
    Pooling slopes (ANCOVA)
  3. Detecting step changes over time
    ANOVA and non-parametric methods
    Power and how many years to monitor
    Dealing with seasonality and autocorrelation
    Sampling vs process error
  4. BACI designs and variants
    Simple Before and After Controlled Impact design (BACI) – Introduction to two factor ANOVA
    BACI with multiple sites
    BACI with multiple years/multiple sites before/after
    Paired BACI with multiple years/multiple sites before/after
    Regression BACI (analysis of covariance)
    Power/sample size

 

Instructor

Schwarz

 

 

Dr. Carl Schwarz, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University. Carl has taught many courses with CMI, and is back by popular request!

Carl has just recently won the SSC Award for Impact of Applied and Collaborative Work 2017.

Required software

  • Base R and Rstudio (available for Mac, Linux and Windows systems) or JMP
  • Adobe Reader
  • Microsoft Excel
  • More detailed software requirements are below

 

Preparation for the course

  • About 2 weeks before the course you will be sent a web link where you can download pre-reading, a course manual, a set of practice exercises to load on your computer before the class, and a reminder about where to get the course software.
  • You will need to bring your own laptop pre-loaded with the required software and downloaded files.
  • Consider bringing along an external monitor, an external keyboard and a mouse if you have a small laptop.
  • You will need to make your own hotel booking, and remember to ask for the rates we’ve arranged for people attending this course (see below).

 

Required software details

Base R. (available for Mac, Linux, and Windows-systems). You should have version 3.0.2 or later.
Visit http://www.r-project.org and install the most recent version on your machine.

*** IMPORTANT *** In order to install packages after R is installed, you will need either Administrative Access to your machine or a personal library on your desktop where you can install packages on the fly. If you want a personal package library, follow the instructions at: http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~cschwarz/CourseNotes/R-personal-library.html

For JMP students, download the 30-day trial version of the software here: http://www.jmp.com

Install the following packages PRIOR for the workshop.

View, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1P5jBthaQk  OR http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1r5XTqrCTQ for instructions on how to install packages. This will also test if your personal library for packages is working.
car,  doBy,      gdata,  ggplot2, gplots,  knitr,
lme4, lmerTest, lsmeans, nlme,    plyr,    xlsx

A VERY brief (interactive) tutorial on R is available at http://tryr.codeschool.com. Earn some badges!

Rstudio. Visit http://www.rstudio.com and install on your machine.

Adobe Reader – Your laptop needs to have Adobe Reader to access the course manual during the course. The manual is about 65 MB and will be supplied as a download prior to the course. You need at least 65 MB of free space so you can copy the manual to the hard drive and read from the hard drive during the course.

MS Excel – You will need to unzip the course exercises files before the course. Your laptop needs to have MS Excel installed for opening the un-zipped files.

Tip : Allow sufficient time for your tech support people to approve and install the software.

 

Registration & Scheduling

Registration for this course includes catered refreshment breaks and access to discounted lift tickets at Revelstoke Mountain Resort (see details below.)

We require a certain number of students to run this course, so please be sure to register right away!  Low registration will result in course cancellation.

As this course is scheduled for February when winter travel can be challenging, we highly recommend that students from outside of Revelstoke travel here a day in advance. In the unlikely instance that road closures on the day of the course become an issue, we will aim to re-schedule the course such that it starts one day later thus will run Feb 8-10, 2018. Assuming course can be rescheduled if need-be our standard cancellation policy will apply (see cancellation policy in registration form.)

Early Bird Rates are available until Nov 30, 2017.

Early Bird, CMI Member: $665

Early Bird, regular: $710

CMI member: $680

Regular: $725

** You can purchase and/or renew your annual CMI membership at the same time as you register. See here for membership details. Memberships purchased after Oct 1, 2017 will include the 2018 calendar year.

REGISTER HERE

 

Skiing

If you are interested to ski in the mornings before your course here is some information that might help you:

Revelstoke Nordic Ski Club: This website has all information you’ll need to get you skiing the incredible nordic trails at the base of Mt. McPherson.

Revelstoke Mountain Resort: RMR has generously provided CMI students with access to half-day lift tickets that you can use in the morning on Feb 7-9! Discounted tickets will be $63 (regular rate is $99). These tickets can be purchased through CMI when you register for the course.

** Remember that class starts at 12:30pm sharp!  This means that you need be in your seats with your computers on and ready to go with all required software so that the whole class can commence on time.

PHOTO: Revelstoke Ski Club members, circa 1891. Revelstoke Museum & Archives photo #1066

Where to stay?

As this course is taking place during the busy tourist season in Revelstoke, we suggest that you make arrangements for accommodation immediately. We have arranged for discounted room rates at the following venues which are both within easy walking distance of the Okanagan College. We recommend that you book your accommodation ASAP to ensure you find a room at this busy time in Revelstoke.

We have set up a room-block at the Monashee Lodge, just one block away from the Okanagan College. Discounted room rates are available for $90/night plus tax. Larger family rooms are available for $100/night plus tax. This includes a continental breakfast (hot breakfasts can be ordered at additional cost), and there is also a clean hot tub and infra-red sauna for your use. 250-814-2553. Please state that you are with “CMI” to receive the discounted rate. Rooms will be held until November 30, after that time rooms will still be awarded at the discounted rate if vacancy allows.

Another option is to stay at the Gateway Inn where rooms are available at a 10% discount, rates starting at $109/night plus tax. Price includes a continental breakfast. The Gateway Inn is just across the street from Okanagan College. 250-837-2164. Please state that you are with “CMI” to receive the discounted rate.

 

Questions?

For questions about course content and software, please contact:  Dr. Carl Schwarz at cschwarz@stat.sfu.ca

For questions about registration, contact the CMI office at office@cmiae.org

 

 

Thank you to our host Okanagan College

 

 

 

Contact

  • Phone 250-837-9311
  • Fax 250-837-9311
  • Email

Mailing Address

  • P.O. Box 2568
  • Revelstoke, British Columbia V0E 2S0
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